With the news coming out this week that the Bluejays have offered Vlad Jr. a $450million contract and he is wanting a $500m contract over 15 years we have to wonder, who is the loser here? Why isn’t this getting done? SHOULD it get done? Let’s dive in!

Obviously this is a monster contract and the Bluejays need to ensure they get this right. A player such as Vlad hasn’t been seen in Toronto since Bautista and they’ve not had a talent like him from rookie status since Delgado. So should they sign for his asking price? Short answer, yes. That amount of money is eye popping for sure but when compared to contracts with top players over the last decade we can see comparables. We need to keep in mind the true value of cash at this time with inflation over the last decade and where economics sit globally and moving forward. You can’t look at a sports based contract in a vacuum and need to understand the macro global economics to better understand what a future dollar will be worth. What the hell does that mean? Look at this way. If you sign a contract today for $1 and in five years with inflation, that $1 is now only worth .75% of the original dollar value, you have a diminishing value in comparison to the value of the current day dollar. On a bigger scale and focused on sports contracts, a deal Vlad signs today for $500m or $33m per year over 15 years may cost 25% in five years, or $41.6m per year. Being that Vlad will still be in his prime at 30 years and still highly valuable (barring injuries) then we can assume that in that scenario $33m will seem like a value contract for his production. As many others have already commented, I don’t believe his abilities will diminish as much as some players as they age. There are a few reasons for that. Vlad has missed an extremely low amount of games in his career so far and has been highly durable. He plays a position that doesn’t push your body to the limits with risk of injury as a result of over extending yourself or diving and sliding often to field. Think of George Springer as an obvious comparison and how his body is basically fighting him at this point as he turns 35 and is literally fighting to maintain a semblance of competitiveness. Vlad won’t have those same issues at his position of 1st base. One other thing of notice is how his swing has changed. He used to have an extremely violent swing effort, and although it is still there we see a change now for the vast majority of his plate appearances. He isn’t trying to drive the ball out of the park every swing now and is getting a lot of hard contact to open areas as a result. It is not wild to see him batting around or above .300 for his career with an OBP over .400 when all is said and done.

Okay, so it sounds like I am promoting signing the $500m contract right? As a fan yes, yes I am. Although, when I look at it from a business angle, does it make good business sense? Well, do we believe that making the playoffs is good business sense? With the average spend of an attendee at a Bluejays home game we can do some simple math and get a figure of somewhere around $100. PER HOME GAME in revenue. It is not out of the realm of possibility to say that if they built a competitive team and had a deep playoff run that Rogers could pull in over $1billion in revenue. Imagine doing that every year. Now imagine that is ONLY in park revenue and Rogers also owns the channels, programming, and rights to all Bluejays games broadcast. Playoff games would bring huge revenue during programming via commercials and in paid partnerships.

Okay, good point, but is it long term viable to fill out a roster with that type of contract? Listen, in Toronto we are well equipped to have the top heavy player contract conversation re: the core four on the Mapleleafs and the media’s cover of it ad-nausea. I think with baseball it is a little different. You need to have a robust farm system and continually be building into it to have young controllable talent ever year, and although Shatkins has done a mediocre job at best so far they have recently made acquisitions and moves to get a few players now in the MLB pipeline top 100. Something else that is not discussed often is the dichotomy of values in positions. You can get a very good reliever for a low cost comparably. Take Ryan Helseley for example who is one of the best closers in baseball and he is only making $8m a year. There are areas you can find value in baseball. A great example may pop this year in Ernie Clement. While being well liked by teammates (which always helps, culture is important) he looks to be one of those players that gets better with reps. I look to him having a break out year at third base in 2025. Now he isn’t going to be world breaking but if he swats 20 homers and has an OBP over .350 which is highly possible, then at $1.9m you have a great support player on a very good contract and will for a few years. These are the players that allow you to sign the all stars like Vlad to ridiculous contracts. (Personally I think Clement will become a fan favourite with his southern charm and smile, and his lunchbox work ethic which blue collar Ontario love in their players and that bodes well for the team overall.)

So, should they sign him? Yes, and yes. The real questions though is should they sign Bo Bichette to a $350m contract, but that is a blog for another day….maybe tomorrow.