Let me start by saying that like most I don’t begrudge athletes getting their bag, they are the ones that make us fanatics about the sports and teams we follow, and as a Leafs fan I feel the same way about Marner. He is a great player and deserves to cash in on this one time he has this opportunity. He will never be younger than he is today, and his talents will most likely decline from here on out. So you go gir…I mean playa, and get your “sheets” (as the kids say these days…I think) and don’t worry about what the pundits say about it here in Toronto, they are just jealous.

Imagine what this means for team composition though. For the longest time now (8 years??) the Mapleleafs have been in a top heavy situation (nothing ground breaking here, it’s pretty common knowledge) and for the first time in almost a decade the team is in a position where potentially letting their all star walk may actually be in their best interest. Let me explain. If you allocate $13ish million to Marner’s contract and therefore also the cap hit you get an excellent player but sacrifice depth now and moving forward. What is unique about the specific timing of this contract is that we know where the cap is going in the coming years. This deal can have a compounding effect year over year on the ability to deepen the roster. Let’s dig a little deeper. For every dollar that you spend this off season it will affect the next years ability as well. You always want to use up the cap space you have in a competitive situation but with the knowledge of the cap increasing this thinking can hurt your overall capability year over year to attract and sign pieces to build an overall effective and deep roster.

Let’s use an example scenario to build out this thought. You have approximately $24m to play with next off season. First you sign John Tavares to a $6.5m per year for 5 years contract. That takes us to $17.5m. Signing Mathew Knies to a four year $3.5m contract is probably a respectable bridge deal for both sides and now we are at $14m remaining. Add Marner’s expected $13m and there is $1m left for any other positions of need. With 2 other RFA contracts with Robertson and Holmberg, that means you are letting them walk or moving other assets to make space.

Now let’s look at example #2. If we assume JT is coming back at the same cost as above we are back at $17.5m remaining. Knies at $3.5m puts us back at $14. Robertson at $1.2m and Holmberg at league minimum puts it around $12m remaining. Now here is where we delineate a bit from the standard plan. If Tre offers Bennett $8m (for whatever term really as it doesn’t truly matter for this exercise) that allows them to deploy JT and Bennett as a winger situationally. This allows Berube to have 4 natural centres to play with for offensive and defensive situations when we include Mathews and Laughton. With Nylander moving up to the top line to join Mathews and Knies, that provides a high octane line with scoring ability in layers. After that its more like a bottom three lines and player scenario with the following players moving around depending on fit, need and synergies: JT/Bennett/Domi/McMann/Robertson/Jarnkrok/Holmberg/Kampf. I feel that with this approach the bottom players would be transitional based on who is going strong on any given night and at most play 5-7 minutes a game. If I had my druthers I would probably want Kampf and/or Jarnkrok moved.

Having cap space to add true bottom line players that are strong defensively for the penalty kill etc. and give your best players a rest is important for a long season and long playoff run. I am not a fan of your best players playing long minutes on a penalty kill with a focus on blocking shots. One broken bone in a hand from a blocked shot (or worse) and your star is out for an elongated period of time. In playoffs obviously the strategy can change, but regular season it just isn’t worth it in my opinion.

Okay so what’s my overall point and where am i going with this? From this perspective it appears as if it’s Bennett for Marner as the big change. Not something a lot of fans would support I would think. Well, there could be another benefit immediately. It could be possible to add another player like Nikolaj Ehlers for $8m ish as well if you can move Kampf/Jarnkrok and still have the cap space for those defensive specialists on low cap hits. Now you’ve added another perennial 25 goal forward to the middle six. That means you are getting around 100 goals from your middle group or more. That is quality depth scoring, and an extremely important reason why the last few cup winners have been able to take the trophy home since the pandemic seasons. Depth scoring is the buzzword of 2025 GMs and coaches and has also made its way into the media. We can all see that if you only have three to four players who score consistently, that is an easy team to shut down in the playoffs. You can target those players and assign your most defensively sound players to be a wet blanket and shut them down.

Now, that could also provide cap space for deadline acquisitions or to have enhanced space the next off season. Which brings us to the most coveted asset in the NHL, and the ability to offer Connor McDavid the required contract to get him to sign on the dotted line. He will get $16/$18m on his next contract. Mark my words. With the increase to $104m for that following season you have the potential to make that work if you manage the money properly starting this offseason. Imagine a world where your centres are McDavid/Mathews/Bennet for your top three lines. By this time JT is most likely a winger still getting 50 points a season without the weight of playing the centre position. You of course are going to have other contracts to worry about as well like Stolarz and other players you may want to keep, but this is the crown jewel of all signings if you can make it fit, and as a result have two of the top five centres in the league at the same time. That is an opportunity you can’t miss on and need to take a swing at, and as such the preparations need to start now.